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Impact of the US Economic Policy Shift on the Global Economy

Chen Jiyong  Liu Weiping

Abstract: The economic policy framework of the Trump government has been basically formed. Its core content is to "globally contract" economic and trade protection policy and "put America first" in the domestic economic policy. This policy framework will have a significant impact on the US economy, the global economy and Sino-US economic and trade relations. First of all, Trump's "US priority" large-scale fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, expansion of infrastructure investment and financial deregulation will have a great impact on the US short-term economic development. Second, Trump's "global contraction" of economic and trade protection policies will have an important effect on the global economic development, especially international trade, international finance, international investment and regional economic integration. At the same time, for China, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages; it will provide China with certain development room in the Asia-Pacific region and even around the globe, especially for China's "OBAOR" program. Third, in case that the EU, Russia, Japan, India, South Korea and the Trump government reach an agreement against China, it is recommended to actively use the existing international exchange platforms; create ties with the Trump government and the key members of his team; guide China's financial institutions, especially the development financial institutions and infrastructure construction enterprises; build an effective new Sino-US economic and trade cooperation pattern; and promote the healthy development of Sino-US economic and trade relations.

Keywords: Trump, contraction strategy, geopolitical, trade protection, global economy

陳繼勇，武漢大學美加經濟研究所所長、教授、博導，中國美國經濟學會會長。研究方向為世界經濟、國際投資、國際金融與貿易。主要著作有《中國互利共贏對外開放戰略》《美國“雙赤字”與世界經濟失衡》《國際商務與經貿人才培養新模式——創新與實踐》等。劉衛平，國家開發銀行研究院教授。